Standing Well Back

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Fishy story from the Straits of Hormuz

It’s usually sensible to wait for clarity when initial reports of incidents come in.   But here’s a story that is developing that just seems fishy….  Link here to the BBC story

So…. the story is from the Straits of Hormuz, a key flashpoint and area of tension. An area where a large proportion of the world’s oil passes through, where incidents have occurred before (including missiles being fired at ships).  It happened on a Japanese tanker carrying a cargo of oil.  So possible geopolitical impacts to Iran, Japan, the Gulf and the world in general.  The ship and the owners of the ship and the Japanese government say it was an explosion related to “piracy” whatever that means.  But the local coastguard say that is was a “wave”.  The damage was to the “upper accommodation of the ship” including some doors and windows”. A life boat was blown off the ship.  Furniture in one cabin was broken but the cabin was dry showing no evidence of water from a wave.

So… the Iranians are saying it was an earth tremor causing a tsunami, but the US geological survey says there was no record of such a tremor. The USGS are known to be pretty reliable in comparison to perhaps the Iranian coastguard.  Do you think a Captain of an oil tanker would recognise a big wave that damaged the upper accommodation of his ship but left no sign of water?  You’d think that the single crew member whith injures from flying glass might remember the wave bit, wouldn’t you?

Spider-senses are tingling.  Watch out.

Non EOD interesting stuff

Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.

With General Petraeus picking up the baton in Afghanistan it’s interesting to note that his successor as CENTCOM commander is Marine General James Mattis.  Mattis is an interesting character to say the least.  A few years ago I heard him speak and met him at a conference on IEDs.  He is a short man with the outward appearance of a schoolmaster. As soon as he opened his mouth though, you realize that here is someone who combines deep and clear thought about military leadership with remarkably hard aggressive instincts.  That’s unusual, refreshing and my guess is that everyone who works for him will be inspired to follow him anywhere. He does have that effect on people.   The quote at the head of this post is, I think, genuinely attributed to him.  Some more quotes to give you the measure of the man are here.

Mattis has deep concerns about the over-application of technology in the battlefield.  Net-centric warfare, where every level of command has direct management and communication to the individual infantryman at the frontline is not a policy direction that will survive longer than 10 seconds at CENTCOM under his command – he’s a great believer in every level of command being capable of independent thought within the framework of a mission without the necessity of technology driven micro-management. As he has shown in operational theaters, if his subordinates don’t get this he’ll fire them on the spot, as he did in 2003.

Which brings me to my one concern. I think Mattis genuinely doesn’t trust technology for all the right reasons… but he also misunderstands technology – his aspiration stated at the conference a few years ago for a system to defeat IEDs was facile and frankly misunderstood the potential of the laws of physics.  As a good marine he sensed, I think, my eyes rolling and eyebrows rising when he gave his views on where C-IED technology should focus.  Then I felt his eyes lock on mine, and sensed that I was then, at that very point, now, the first person in that room that he would very politely and very professionally kill first…

But, despite that experience and my concern about his views on C-IED technology, Mattis is absolutely the right choice for CENTCOM commander.  His thoughtful approach will match the thinking of Patraeus and they will be the most formidable military leaders I can think of, in tune. Certainly professional, certainly inspirational and with something else – Mattis will be absolutely without fail frank and honest at all times.  Being a thoughtful, scary, honest guy in charge of all that military power is a good thing for the US and its allies.   And bad for our enemies.

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EOD Operations in Afghanistan

A microcosm of the Afghan insurgency:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7124689.ece

Who will run out of willpower first?

EOD Psychology

Learning terrorism

There’s an interesting article here about how terrorists learn to make IEDs. Quite relevant in the light of the apparently poorly constructed IED in Times Square, New York a couple of weeks ago. Interesting concepts such as the difference between “Techne” (greek for “technical knowledge”) that is obtained by teaching and “Metis” greek for intuitive practical knowledge that is gained by experience.  Neither works on their own I guess. There are interesting implications here in terms of the ability for terrorism to transfer from say Afghanistan to the US homeland.  Interesting implications too in the sense that “home grown” terrorists understand the context better in their own homeland and have the “Metis” for conducting an operation better than, say, a guy sent from one country to another. Like – “Oh yeah, I know which shops sell peroxide….”  I think there are implications too to work I’ve done in the past in terms of predicting or at best characterising where roadside IEDs might be laid. There might be a characterised signature in that aspect between a “metis” knowledgeable man from a “techne” knowledgeable man.

There’s also a point that the “metis” of general criminality enables terrorism. Obvious when you think about it, but worth considering in that way.   This also explains why cops make good terrorist hunters when embedded with the military.  I suggest you read the article.

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The British Medal…

Not only do EOD technicians have to be highly skilled… They have to be highly patient too when being interviewed by poorly prepared and fairly stupid interviewers. Capt Wayne Owers (with a tally of 90+ IEDs rendered safe) is interviewed here, and shows remarkable patience with the radio host Jeremy Vine. Foolish questions! But Wayne comes across very well. His blunt assessment of “The Hurt Locker” (don’t go there) is professional, but after the interview Vine goes back to it repeatedly. Duh. Vine also reads out some comment that Owers should be awarded “the British Medal” whatever that is. Good grief. My brain aches listening to Vine’s crap.

Good on Owers though, putting up with buffoonery.

The interview will be available on iPlayer if you want to listen to it for seven days (until April 14). It starts around 1:19 into the show.

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