Just Speculating…

Look at these two links:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11183476

and

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11657486

Hmm..  Otherwise ~ I’m going to refrain from comments and analysis until things are clearer. The initiation system is yet unclear and that’s key to the response to such devices. What I will say is that the construct of such devices will be very difficult to counter by x-ray analysis of routine cargo. X ray interpretation will only be of use once an item is identified as suspicious.

Bloody few are violinists…

A divergent aside from the grim world of terrorism.  I came across a fascinating historical eccentric British military figure.  He went by the name of Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Carton de Wiart VC, KBE, CB, CMG, DSO. Very non-PC. I’m digging into his life story, and honestly you couldn’t make it up.   Here’s some examples of his exploits:

  • He enlisted in the Army as a trooper in the Boer War, and was invalided home
  • He fought in British Somaliland in 1914 against the Mad Mullah
  • He was wounded 11 times in battle. He was shot through the lung (in South Africa), in the eye, and ear and arm in British Somaliland, lost his left hand in 1915, biting off his fingers when a doctor declined to remove them, shot through the skull and ankle at the Somme through the hip at Passchendale through the leg at Cambrai and through the ear at Arras.
  • In 1914 De Wiart was taken back to Britain where he had what was left of his left eye removed. By this point it was early 1915 and World War 1 was in full swing and De Wiart was informed that he could only go if he wore a glass eye (they didn’t want the Germans to think they forced to use one eyed officers), De Wiart agreed and as he left the Medical Board he took out his eye and threw it away.
    He won the VC and commanded three battalions and a brigade on the Western front
  • He was part of the British military mission to Poland after the war and retired and settled there in the 1920’s, and illegally was gun running for the Poles with the aid of a stolen train (allegedly). He was involved in a number of escapades which included shooting marauding Russian cavalry with his pistol from the footplate of a train. He then fell off the train (but jumped back on).
  • On escaping from Poland in 1939 he crossed into Romania with this terrific quote. When he got to the border the first sentry on the other side stood up and de Wiart addressed him, first in English and then in French. He said there were only three sorts of Romanians: they’re either pimps, pederasts or violinists, and bloody few are violinists….. Fortunately the Romanian sentry, thinking this was mutual regard, saluted and they passed through.
  • He commanded a pretty disastrous Norwegian campaign at the start of the German invasion there.
  • He was appointed head of the British military mission to Yugoslavia as the Nazis were poised to invade, but en route his transport aircraft crashed over the Med and he became a POW after swimming to shore. Despite his age and disability he set about working on an escape tunnel for seven months and tried to escape 5 times.  Once de Wiart evaded capture for eight days disguised as an Italian peasant, no mean feat considering that he was in northern Italy, did not speak Italian, and was 61 years old, with an eye patch, one empty sleeve and multiple injuries. Ironically, de Wiart had been approved for repatriation due to his disablement but notification arrived after his escape. As the repatriation would have required that he promise not to take any further part in the war it is probable that he would have declined anyway.
  • By August 1943 he was back in England (long story!) and was then sent to China as Churchill’s personal representative. There’s a whole book worth of anecdotes there…
  • A champagne, claret and port man, he detested whisky, liked popular music hall tunes and had no ear for classical music.
  • He married a countess, had two daughters but omitted mention of any of them (and his VC) in his autobiography. His second wife was 25 years younger then him.

I think he might be the subject of my next book…. 🙂

Anti- Heroes

Terrorists are nasty vicious people. And sometimes we need to laugh at them, belittle their self-importance, pour contempt on their pathetic justifications for evil and ridicule their activities. When they get it right, its pretty horrific, but quite often they get it wrong.

Here’s my top ten. Please add you own.  I might keep this updated:

1. The Most stupid Master Bomber. Ramzi Yousef, the world trade center bomber now locked up for life in “super max.” The man is a buffoon, but for the partially successful attack on the WTC. He nearly blew his arm off in Pakistan, he abandoned an attack in Bangkok, and set his explosives lab on fire in Manila. Doh!  In New York his intention was to kill 250,000 – he actually caused 6 deaths .  Some details are here.. One of his accomplices rented the truck the bomb was put in from Ryder truck rental. After the bomb exploded he went back to the rental office to claim back his $400 deposit. No really, he did!  He was arrested on the spot.

2. The terrorist with the squashiest nose. Lors Doukaev – see below. Caused an accidental explosion in lavatory in Copenhagen while making a bomb. Doh!

3. The Unnoticed Terrorist. The unnamed terrorist who tried to blow up the M Star oil tanker – see below. You go to all the trouble of ramming your speedboat full of explosives into the side of an oil tanker…. And no-one notices… Doh!

4. The Sports Fan.  Dedicated convert to Islam, Joel Hinrichs learnt how to make TATP on the internet. Outside a sports stadium in Oklahoma, containing 100,000 fans, he fails to get in, sits alone on the bench outside, and blows his head off when the bomb goes off accidentally. Doh!  Nice beard Joel.

5. The terrorist with the Worst Skin Condition. Kafeel Ahmed one of two terrorists tried to blow up night clubs in London, both devices failed. So he and his accomplice drove their Jeep into Glasgow airport. The jeep burned. So did Ahmed. He burnt for quite a while and died painfully some weeks later. That’s about it really.

6. The Times Square non-bomber..(or maybe not).   Faizal Shazad, was a poor student. He never really learned how to make a bomb that would detonate. After his failed bomb attack he was arrested on a plane bound for the UAE. He said of his arresting officer “You must be from the FBI”.  Well, he got that part right….

7. You were meant to blow the bloody door off.. Nicky Reilly converted to Islam and got religion and terrorism in the same bite. But not common sense. He picked a really famous iconic target for his attack…the lavatories of the Giraffe restaurant in Exeter, UK.  The bomb went off and hurt him. Ohh I bet that stung.

8. You are not meant to laugh. Blackburn, Lancashire terrorist cell.  These guys were convicted. Their video, here, is pretty funny. Not very scary are they?   All they need is big floppy shoes and a flower that squirts water. At least one of them stops grinning and tries to look mean. Funny eh?

9. The Fort Dix Movie stars.  A bunch of would be terrorists were planning an attack on Fort Dix. They made a movie of themselves brandishing weapons and shouting “We’re going to commit terror! Wooooh!:  And then they took the movie file to Circuit City to get them to burn it onto a CD for them. No, really, stop giggling, they did.  The geek squad reported them and they were arrested.

10. Just Plain Dumb. In 1991 two terrorists made a bomb to blow up the Thomas Jefferson cultural center in Manila.  Imagine the scene, the bomb is carried into the center in the middle of the night.  Because it’s night, its DARK.  Because its DARK and because the terrorist, Ahmed J Ahmed (I’m not making this up) doesn’t have flashlight he users his cigarette lighter to illuminate the bomb as he sets its delicate timer. He and his accomplice Saad look nervously at each other. Saad watches the door for the guards. Its TIME to set the TIMER.  Ahmed J Ahmed, holds the bomb in one hand and the lighter in the other…..but he has to put the lighter down to use his other hand to set the timer. In the DARK he turns the Timer the wrong way…… BOOOOM!  Ahmed J Ahmed dies instantly, and Saad staggers outside, dazed, covered in Ahmed’s entrails, and is later arrested in hospital.

Most terrorists really are idiots. I’ve not met one I liked.  Thank God a good proportion of them have a self limiting gene pool. Don’t have any sympathy if they hurt themselves.

Right out of a spy movie

Here’s an interesting story   that by and large hasn’t been picked up by the media.  After a small explosion in a Copenhagen hotel lavatory last week, a man was subsequently arrested in a local park where he ran after the explosion.  The man was wearing, according to some reports, a suicide vest or some package tied around his waist. Police removed that from him with a remote cutting tool on a robot.  The man was isolated on the ground in the park for about 5 hours as the EOD operation proceeded. The man is keeping shtum and keeping his mouth zipped.  But he appears to have a number of false identity papers from a number of European countries.  What’s also interesting is that the man has a prosthetic leg (below the knee) and even the serial number for that has been removed presumably to prevent tracing its source.  Reminds me of the film “The Fugitive” where the bad guy had a prosthetic arm.

So, what to think…? In typical modern European political correctness the police are not implying or hinting anything specific… but here’s my thoughts:

1.  Only a terrorist would wear an explosive suicide vest. So he’s a terrorist and not some sort of spook.  Suicide belts are used by extremist Islamic terrorists or Tamil terrorists, by and large, so the chances are he’s an extremist Islamic suicide bomber, in my humble opinion. A pistol was also recovered from the scene of the explosion, dropped when the accidental explosion occurred. It’s unlikely the pistol was brought into the country by air, so the man came in by land or was armed with the pistol by locals.

2. He looks European or perhaps North African. But could be middle eastern.

3. There’s an odd mix of professionalism and the usual amateur aspects here. The false papers and the ability to keep shtum, and the removal of serial numbers from his prosthetic leg indicates a degree of professionalism not always seen from Al Qaida suicide bombers.  But the guy did cause a small explosion in a hotel toilet (shades of Ramzi Yousef there) and did get captured later.

4. The loss of a leg is intriguing. A significant number of “Afghan veterans” from the bad guys side have such injuries from Russian anti personnel mines in the 80s.  So too have some Algerian bad guys.

5. Some reports suggest the man had false papers from a number of countries including Luxembourg, and others report he had a false Belgian passport. The latter is interesting since Al Qaida are known to have obtained Belgian passports. The two Al Qaida suicide bombers who killed Commander Massoud in Afghanistan in 2001 had false Belgian passports as have other arrested Al Qaida operatives. The man arrested had bought a bus ticket to Brussels.

6. Some press reports cite sources close to the investigation, that among the man’s possessions was a map with a ring around the main office of Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Århus, Denmark  The newspaper is infamous for the publication of the cartoons depicting the prophet Mohammed.

7. To me, the explosion sounds like an improvised detonator exploded, he dropped the pistol and ran. Some reports suggest he injured his face and arm in the explosion.  I think there’s a good chance he may have been preparing the device.  But if so that doesn’t fit with the purchase of a bus ticket.

8. The explosion occurred the day before the anniversary of 9/11.  Al Qaida occasionally have tried to mark anniversaries.

9. The suspect speaks French, German and English. An interesting mix and perhaps indicative of a European upbringing or residence.

10. Some reports suggest he is in his twenties, others that he is “about 40”

11. He had stayed 2 nights in the hotel but had checked out of his room the morning of the explosion. The explosion occurred in the publicly available lavatories in the hotel.

12.  Its not beyond the bounds of possibility that the main intent might have been assassination by pistol, with the bomb as a “just in case” he was captured. Such tactics have been seen in Afghanistan.  But with the initiator having prematurely exploded he had no means to detonate the device when captured in the nearby park.

Lets see what develops…

 

Update on Tuesday, September 14, 2010 at 4:54PM by Roger Davies

More details are trickling out. Here’s a mug shot of the man showing injuries, which I think are consistent with an improvised detonator going off.

What is perhaps interesting is that in the first picture, taken from a CCTV camera the day before the incident the suspect had a goatee beard. On the day of the incident he had shaved it off. In some Al Qaida suicide bombing incidents the terrorists have also shaved their beards.

And for interest, here’s a picture of the prosthetic leg. don’t giggle, this is serious… It appears to be a high quality European prosthetic leg.  It intrigues me that the suspect appeared in court without his leg and on crutches…. Now that’s interesting. If all it was was a prosthetic leg why wouldn’t they let him keep it?  Perhaps there is a hint that it was used to maybe smuggle components and removed as “evidence”?

Update on Wednesday, September 15, 2010 at 7:19PM by Roger Davies

Latest news is that Copenhagen Police believe the man is a 24 year old Chechen boxer, resident in Belgium called Lors Doukaev. And there was me thinking hmm, his nose looks like a boxer’s nose…. but I didn’t mention it….

 

Life and grief

I went to a grim and glum funeral of a good man this week. Like most of us in these circumstances it turned my mind to the meaning of life and the meaning of death and the boundaries between the two.  For a period of his life he had been at the forefront of a battle against terrorism, and had suffered badly and bravely in that battle. In some ways his wounds were still unhealed 16 years later.  He, and the community of his colleagues, men who shared some of his experiences, have their whole lives defined to a greater or lesser degree, both willingly and subconsciously, by their role in that battle. Lives of people who deal with IEDs are defined, to an extent, by their actions during a very small percentage of their allotted span. That’s usually OK, but not always.

There are understandable reasons for lives being defined in this way. It’s partly because it’s the summit of a pyramid of training and preparation for a challenging task.   Its partly because you know most people will never understand what you do, and partly because the community of your colleagues, who do understand what you do, encourage it.  But there are negatives that come with it and I felt uncomfortable this week because this man’s life had become defined by what went wrong at the top of that pyramid and maybe he couldn’t come to terms with his false view that an incident beyond his control was a reflection on himself. I don’t doubt the man’s capability and I often used examples of his specific EOD operations as exemplars to others about the need for thoroughness and meticulous thought when dealing with complex IED attacks.  I wish I had told him that, God I wish I had told him that. 

The shared experiences of brothers in arms are desperately needed in these circumstances. The glances, comments, language, attitude and in-jokes  are a hand rail on a ship in stormy seas.  Burton Dassett felt like Wootton Bassett on Thursday.

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